Banking, TARP and the economy

We are living in the strangest times. America's savings rates are showing record improvements, the unemployment is rising close to double digits, the government is having a large share of the Banks and the financial future is anything but certain. In the past two weeks, there have some positive signs-
a) The credit/ financial crisis seems to be a hitting a bottom- banks are lending again, the toxic assets are showing signs of getting cleared out and the refinancing boom is bringing the mortgage industry back on its tracks.
b) The low end retailers are showing continued sings of resilience, which essentially means consumers are spending, but not for luxury items.
What are the headwinds?
Unemployment and softer retail sales overall.
Obama has been widely criticized but here are three things he has done which are remarkable as a leader-
a) He has acted with speed in building his administration out and the team has hit the ground running
b) He has articulated a clear vision of where he needs to take the country- you may disagree with the vision but he has set a clear vision.
c) He has shown sings of being very collaborative in the global arena.
His performance in G20 was stellar.
On a side-note, the TARP issue is an interesting one. Jamie Dimon on the earnings call said he would like to return the money tomorrow. The government doesn't want to take it back- it seems to be liking the control it has over the banks! Clearly, the banks are not liking the demonization of the industry and the very heavy oversight that is coming with the money. THis will be an interesting tug of war to watch.
I am beginning to see the glass half full and I think are on track for recovery by early 2010.