The Red Sox "faithful"

I got introduced to Baseball through the Red Sox and over the last four years, the team has given me many memorable moments- whether it was Curt Schilling's bleeding sock as he pitched gamely against the Yankees, or Pappelbon's amazing closings, or the heroics of Big Papi, the team has three things- an incredible never say die spirit, two- a faithful fan base that is probably the most intense I have seen and three- a ballpark that signifies history and modernity at the same time.

Their latest run has left us glued to our television sets. Just when everyone thought the Rays would take the ALCS title, they have risen like the proverbial phoenix, winning the last two games to tie the series and now comes the decider tomorrow when Lester and Garza go against each other.

Whatever the outcome, the Sox have again shown that they truly have the spirit to be champions. What separates the men from the boys is often not skill, but the mental strength and ability to rise when the chips are down, the temperament to perform when there is a crunch, and no one knows it better than the Red Sox and the "faithful".

My wife and I watched the game till midnight tonight and given the outcome, tomorrow seems like it will be a similar story. While we would not be categorized as the "faithful" yet, we are coming pretty darn close!

Three reasons for the mess and how to get out of it!

My undergrad was in History.
At that time, everyone would ask me if there was any practical use for studying the past.
I would fumble with an answer and say something like- "lessons from history are important for us to avoid mistakes in the future" or "those who forget the lessons of history are condemned to repeat it" etc etc- all platitudes that I myself didn't quite believe in.
The financial crisis currently plaguing the US and the broader world economy has brought back some memories- most recently of the irrational exuberance of the dotcom bubble in the 90's but more importantly that of the 1920's when the overvaluations led to the eventual crash of the stock market and the onset of the Great Depression that resulted in large scale government intervention, consolidation in industry and widespread unemployment, symptoms eerily close to what we are seeing now.

Why do such "crashes" happen? How can we avoid them? And will we?

Cutting through all the jargon, here are the three reasons for the mess.
One- incorrect valuation of assets based on faulty assumptions. So, the land prices will continue to go up and therefore dont worry about whether you can afford your mortgage because your house will be worth much more anyway and you will have equity in your home to cash out if you are trouble- thats faulty logic. To have "securities" based on those assumptions about mortgages is even worse as they go against the grain of what the word security means! Look at the inherent value of any asset, be conservative in predicting future cash flows and if there are positive surprises, good for everyone.

Second- affordability and that goes for both companies and individuals. Over-leverage is never good and so be careful about the materialistic streak you could enter if you spare cash. Rule of thumb- spend no more than 75% of your income and have a cash reserve equivalent to six month of expenses at the very least for a rainy day. For companies, cash is king too. See all these companies trying to get a piece of 700bn bailout- its all about the credit squeeze.

Third- remain emotionally stable and that goes for companies, markets and individuals. We have seen an incredible loss of confidence in the past three weeks, the Dow has plunged from a high of over 13,000 to under 9,000. Have companies suddenly become worthless? No. But have people have lost confidence? Yes. People like security and that comes in numbers. Panic has a cataclysmic effect too. Someone panics, some others join and before you know it, others are bailing on the market based not on their understanding of performance or objective data, but because some others think that values aren't good. This is the time to stay solid and not panic. If you have done a goof job of one and two above, you have nothing to worry about.

So there are the three lessons. Value appropriately, spend reasonably, and don't panic when crisis hits. The lessons are as important for companies and as they are for individuals.
And from all our lessons of history, we know that when we fail to live by these value, we are taught some painful lessons that make us come back on the right track.
History does repeat itself in uncanny ways, and I am glad to have that undergrad even if it was years ago....the lessons are still fresh in my mind!

Joe, Carl and Becky- 6am start to the work day!

Over the past three weeks, I have been waking up religiously at 5:30.
Not to exercise, not to get ready for a morning- but to watch three musketeers tell us about the latest on the economy and on the business.
At the strike of 6, I am right in front of the TV, glued to what the three have in store for me- Joe, Carl and Becky provide a fascinating perspective on the world of business- in a manner that is engaging, fun and informative at the same time.
So what is it that I like about Squawk Box on CNBC, the only business show I tivo-
One- the three have an incredible understanding of the markets, the business fundamentals and the interconnections looking at both macro trends in terms of futures, currencies and commodities on the hand, and specific company results on the other.
Two- their style is conversational and never looks scripted- they feed off each other, and none of the three feel the need to dominate the show as they work so well together as a team.
Three- they are able to get the best in the business on their show as guests that lends incredible credibility to the show. Warren Buffet is a regular, and so is Jack Welch. And interestingly, Joe, Carl and becky interact with everyone, and I mean, everyone with great ease and comfort.
The show is informative and fast paced and I have found nothing better to start the morning in these turbulent times than the trio using their engaging style to get me to make sense of the world of business as it stands today and where it is headed.
It almost feels like I have three friends who give me a headstart in the world of business every single day of the week.
Wonder how I survived all these years without them!

Tina Fey rocks!

I love impersonations, but there are so many that are terrible, that when an extraordinary one comes along, you have got acknowledge it- and Tina Fey's impersonation of Sarah Palin is one for the ages!
Granted Sarah Palin is a sitting duck for humorists- she has no experience, doesn't answer most questions directly, has not beyond Alaska let alone the shores of the US, and her understanding of economics would make her a candidate for "Are you Smarter than a Fifth Grader" but still, you've got to get things right and Tina Fey is bang on- on several accounts- the accent, the cutesy wink, the inane maverick comments and the ability to still think you're doing well. If you have not seen the Saturday Night Live portions featuring her in the last couple of weeks, you are missing out on something.
Tina Fey walked away with a few Emmys this year, and if her Sarah Palin performances are anything to go by, she is already a front runner for next year.
She rocks, as much as Sarah Palin sucks...

Palin, Pakistani President and the fatwa...

I just found this news column and thought it was indicative of how the central issues in Pakistan somehow get sidestepped for the most bizarre and innocuous events that somehow take centerstage. Read on...

After the flirtation came the fatwa.

With some overly friendly comments to Gov. Sarah Palin at the United Nations, Asif Ali Zardari has succeeded in uniting one of Pakistan's hard-line mosques and its feminists after a few weeks in office.

A radical Muslim prayer leader said the president shamed the nation for "indecent gestures, filthy remarks, and repeated praise of a non-Muslim lady wearing a short skirt."

Feminists charged that once again a male Pakistani leader has embarrassed the country with sexist remarks. And across the board, the Pakistani press has shown disapproval.

What did President Zardari do to draw such scorn? It might have been the "gorgeous" compliment he gave Ms. Palin when the two met at the UN last week during her meet-and-greet with foreign leaders ahead of Thursday's vice presidential debate with opponent Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic vice presidential nominee.

But the comments from Zardari didn't end there. He went on to tell Palin: "Now I know why the whole of America is crazy about you."

"You are so nice," replied the Republican vice presidential hopeful, smiling. "Thank you."

But what may have really caused Pakistan's radical religious leaders to stew was his comment that he might "hug" Palin if his handler insisted.

Though the fatwa, issued days after the Sept. 24 exchange, carries little weight among most Pakistanis, it's indicative of the anger felt by Pakistan's increasingly assertive conservatives who consider physical contact and flattery between a man and woman who aren't married to each other distasteful. Though fatwas, or religious edicts, can range from advice on daily life to death sentences, this one does not call for any action or violence.

Last year, the mosque that issued the fatwa, Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad, condemned the former tourism minister, Nilofar Bahktiar, after she was photographed being hugged by a male parachuting coach in France.

Clerics declared the act a "great sin" and, though less vocal about it, similar sentiments were shared by many among Pakistani's middle classes. The Red Mosque gained international infamy in July 2007 after becoming the focal point of a Pakistan Army operation.

For the feminists it's less about cozying up to a non-Muslim woman and more about the sexist remarks by Zardari.

"As a Pakistani and as a woman, it was shameful and unacceptable. He was looking upon her merely as a woman and not as a politician in her own right," says Tahira Abdullah, a member of the Women's Action Forum.

Dismissing the mosque's concerns as "ranting," she, however, adds: "He should show some decorum – if he loved his wife so much as to press for a United Nations investigation into her death, he should behave like a mourning widower," in reference to former Pakistani premier Benazir Bhutto, a feminist icon for millions of Pakistani women.

The theme of decorum was picked up by English daily Dawn, whose editorial asked: "Why do our presidents always end up embarrassing us internationally by making sexist remarks?"

The incident bears some resemblance to yet another charm offensive by a senior Pakistani politician. Marcus Mabry's biography of Condoleezza Rice includes a passage in which he relates a meeting between former Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz and Ms. Rice, in which Mr. Aziz was said to have stared deeply into the secretary of State's eyes and to have told her he could "conquer any woman in two minutes."

There are some, however, who see things as having been blown out of proportion.

"It was a sweet and innocuous exchange played as an international incident on Pakistani and rascally Indian front-pages with one English daily [writing] it in a scarlet box, half-implying Mrs. Palin would ditch Alaska's First Dude and become Pakistan's First Babe. As if," wrote columnist Fasih Ahmed in the Daily Times.

For most, it will soon be forgotten in a country dealing with terrorism, rising food prices, and a struggling economy. "We don't care that much how they [politicians] behave – what really matters is keeping prices down," says Nazeera Bibi, a maid in Lahore.